Predicting Dropouts

Middle School Data Foretells Who Will Drop Out

© Barbara Pytel

Dropout Prevention Begins in Middle School, ablestock.com

By 6th grade the signs are often there for who is likely to drop out. Learn the signs and what to do to prevent academic failure.

As early as 6th grade, dropouts can be spotted. Robert Balfanz, research scientist at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore says, "Our belief is they’ll grow out of it. But the evidence shows that in high-poverty environments, they don’t grow out of it." [Kathleen Manzo, Education Week, edweek.org, March 18, 2008] His advice is to act quickly and aggressively when students begin to show warning signs.

Drop Out Signs

The warning signs are

Balfanz states that the above indicators are better predictors than

Sixth Grade

Nearly half of dropouts can be identified in sixth grade. While it is a concern that so many students drop out in high school, interventions in middle school can turn students around and reduce drop out numbers in high school. High school success is based on middle school success.

Not Prepared

The NAEP test given in 2007, National Assessment of Educational Progress, shows that only 3 out of 10 students in 8th grade were proficient in reading and math. This loudly states that students entering high school are not prepared for a high school curriculum. And, if you add poor attendance, truancy, poverty and behaviors to this mix, failure can be predicted.

Middle School Interventions

Sandra Christenson, professor of educational psychology at the University of Minnesota-Twin Cities in Minneapolis says, "If you are systematically monitoring alterable variables, then you can target students for intervention to change their future." [Kathleen Manzo, Education Week, edweek.org, March 18, 2008]

Over a decade ago, Christenson was one of the developers of the Check & Connect program. This is a mentoring program that monitors students considered academically at-risk. Grades, attendance and other factors are monitored regularly and interventions created to work with the student and the home. The program has not caught on fire in spite of being effective. It requires a two day training and costs are about $1,300 per student.

The mentor is an advocate for the child and commits to working with the child and family for two years. Students check in regularly and progress is monitored frequently.

Durham, North Carolina

The Durham school district has put emphasis on middle school success. The district monitors discipline records, academic performance and attendance. Once a month the data is reviewed and, if necessary, home visits are made if phone calls are not answered. If families are in need of outside agencies, the school arranges legal, health and financial services. Counselors are encouraged to seek students out and not wait for students to voice concerns.

Each Durham middle school offers after-school academic and recreation programs. Students may use this to advance their education or catch up on late work. Teachers greet the students at the door with a smile when they come through the doors. First period is called "core plus" and intended for catching up on class work or doing extra-credit assignments. Teachers check grade books to see who is behind and encourage them to get the work done. The student’s day will go smoothly if there is no late work hanging over their head.

Middle school years are the "turn around" years and the predictors for success in high school.

Read previous articles on Educational Issues.

Copyright article 2008 Barbara Pytel. All Rights Reserved.


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Dropout Prevention Begins in Middle School, ablestock.com
       


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