College Enrollment Reaching Peak

Mar 2, 2007

According to The Philadelphia Inquirer, college enrollment will peak out in 2009. Patrick Kerkstra says that the glory days for colleges will be ending soon.

Colleges are presently enjoying steady enrollment. However, this is about to change.

How Much of a Drop?

Enrollment is expected to drop by 4% in 2009 but not everywhere. U.S. Department of Education predicts that the Northeast may see a 10% decline in high school graduates. Some states may see only a 2% drop if they have a growing population.

Which Schools?

Of course, Harvard and Yale will not see a decline. These colleges turn away more students than others accept. And, the large state universities will probably also be stable. The decrease will be at the private college level. Colleges that are already seeing a decline in new students or barely filling the seats will be hit hard when the bubble bursts.

Good News - Bad News

This is good news for students who will be able to get accepted at more colleges and hold out for better offers. It is bad news for small, private colleges that do not have deep pockets to give students generous financial aid packages. Colleges are already spending big bucks recruiting college students.

This situation will also pressure some colleges to accept marginal students that would not have been accepted in the past. What will this do to the academic rankings of the colleges? How many institutions will need to close their doors?

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